Embassy of Indonesia - Ottawa Canada June 24, 2004  

 Indonesian trade and investment news-June 2004

MACROECONOMY

BI Policies Bite
Bank Indonesia’s (BI) moves to reduce liquidity in the market appear to have borne immediate fruit, with three major state-owned banks saying they will be able to fulfill higher minimum reserve requirements without raising interest rates.

BI also said it will seek to keep the benchmark interest rate on its promissory note (SBI) from increasing in order to keep inflation under control. Governor Burhanuddin Abdullah said the interest rate on SBIs will be maintained at around 7.3%, Antara reported.

Burhanuddin said with economic fundamentals relatively strong, the interest rates on monetary instruments would still tend to decline, although more slowly.

The rupiah closed last week at 9,375.00 after a week in which it dipped to Rp9,500 but then firmed. The average closing rate of the rupiah during May was Rp9,028 per dollar, 4.8% lower than the previous month's average.

In the wake of the BI announcement on new minimum reserve rules, I Wayan Pugeg, managing director state-owned Bank Mandiri, the country’s largest, said Thursday that the bank had no plans to raise interest rates, (10/6/04), Reuters reported.

Another major state-owned bank, Bank Negara Indonesia, the second largest bank, indicated rates would also stay down, saying it was targeting a 20% rise in net interest income as consumers took up low-interest loans.

Fourth-largest Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI) also said it will not change lending rates because of the new requirements.

BNI president Sigit Pramono and Bank Permata president Agus Martowardojo both said their banks would not need to raise lending rates.

Bank Mandiri will need to allocate an extra Rp4 trillion ($426.9 million) for reserves with the new policy. Pugeg said Mandiri had no plans to increase either credit or deposit interest rates. The additional reserve requirement would come from liquid deposits, he said, suggesting that Bank Indonesia’s plan to reduce liquidity to stop currency speculation would pay off.

The reserve requirement for banks with total rupiah deposits higher than Rp50 trillion has been increased to 8% from 5%, with the central bank paying interest of 3% on the additional reserves.

As Indonesia entered the third week of its presidential election campaign, the stock market stayed cautious but the lack of any election-related violence began to raise hopes that the doubts on Indonesia would prove short-lived.


Rosy view
In this light, Indonesia scored relatively well in a poll of members of American Chambers of Commerce across the region. In Indonesia, 35% of respondents expect the local economy to improve this year, and only 6% predicted a downturn, Dow Jones Newswires reported.

Across Southeast Asia, four out of five companies were optimistic, with companies based in China the most bullish, with the Philippines the only company were opinion was solidly for a retreat in business prospects.

Going into 2005, US companies in the region are even more confident with 87% projecting a growth in profits. "The message is optimism, optimism, optimism," AmCham Singapore Executive Director Nicholas de Boursac said.

CGI meeting
The Consultative Group on Indonesia (CGI) met in Jakarta for a half-yearly program review. The meeting Wednesday (2/6/04) pinpointed slow investment growth as the major brake on growth, noting that the quality of investments was also lacking, with most interest in unproductive areas such as shopping centers and apartments.

Investment in Indonesia grew by only 2.2% in 2003 and the ratio to gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 17.8%, the lowest level since the 1970s.

Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti told the CGI Indonesia had done solid work during the two and a half years of the current government. “When we came into office, Indonesia was in serious trouble. Given the complexity of the problem, President Megawati set just a few key priority tasks to turn around the economy. These included repairing relations with the international community, restoring macroeconomic stability and restarting growth and finally closing out the institutions created to deal with the crisis,” he said.

“Looking back I think we can say that we have done well on this agenda. Indonesia now, by any standard, has passed the economic and monetary crisis that started in 1997. And, the economy is well positioned for faster and more sustainable growth.” He acknowledged “some early frustrations” with the pace of reform.

He argued that Indonesia had already reached the per capita income figure of $1,000 per year, reduced poverty to pre-crisis levels and produced “a more just and equitable path” in the growth of the economy.

World Bank country chief Andrew Steer said three problems were facing the economy: an increase in global interest rates, which would compound debt problems, decline in China's economic growth, and high oil prices.

The CGI urged Indonesia to do more on reform to promote investment and to boost exports.

Indonesia's economy expanded by 4.5% in the first quarter of the year but growth would have been higher had the country better exploited its export potential. Indonesia's exports grew by only 10% from 1996 to 2003, as compared to Thailand's 70% and South Korea's 50% growth. Nor was Indonesia keeping up with the neighbors in benefiting from growth in China’s imports. This situation left the country too dependent on domestic consumer demand, the CGI added.

Debt Payments Continue
Indonesia's total foreign debt repayments rose to $1.96 billion in March, from $1.41 billion in the previous month, Bank Indonesia figures showed, according to Reuters. Total outstanding foreign debt, comprising both government and private obligations, rose to $136.1 billion at the end of March from $134.4 billion the previous month.

Government offshore debt rose to US$81.97 billion in March from $80.01 billion a month earlier due mainly to the issuance of a $1 billion international bond. Corporate foreign debt fell to $52.39 billion in March from $52.77 billion a month earlier.

Offshore debt repayment rose 39% in March to $1.96 billion in March from the previous month, the central bank said.

Budget Deficit Aims at 0.8% of GDP
Indonesia said its budget deficit will probably narrow to 0.8% of gross domestic product next year, under last month's forecast, on reduced spending and asset sales, Bloomberg News reported. Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Dorodjatun Kuntjoro-Jakti told a business meeting in Jakarta the government was hoping to be able to slash the deficit further to a mere 0.1% in 2006. This year’s deficit is expected at 1.2% of GDP.

LEGAL

Prudential Wins Appeal
The Supreme Court overturned Monday (7/6/04) the controversial bankruptcy verdict imposed on PT Prudential Life Assurance, the local arm of Britain's second-biggest insurer Prudential by the Jakarta Commercial Court in April.

One of the three judges who made the new ruling, Abdul Rahman Saleh, said the case, brought by a former consultant who claimed he was owed $400,000, and made a claim for around $40 million as well as filing a bankruptcy petition, was a contractual dispute and should never have had a bankruptcy hearing.

Prudential was forced to halt its Indonesian operations in the first week after the bankruptcy ruling was handed down but a judge then allowed the company to resume business.

SOEs

Bank Permata Sale to Start
The government said Tuesday it would begin the sale of a majority stake in Bank Permata next month by launching a road show in Asia, The Jakarta Post reported.

Mohammad Syahrial, president of Asset Management Company (PPA), the new state agency in charge of distressed assets, said the road show would begin in late July. He added that the sale was expected to be sealed by the end of the year.

State Minister for State Enterprises Laksamana Sukardi earlier rejected moves by Bank Negara Indonesia for a merger with Permata. "A stand-alone bank status for respective banks creates healthy competition within the banking sector," Sukardi said Monday (7/6/04).

Permata is 92% owned by PPA on behalf of the government, is one of a number of banks scheduled to sell this year. The House of Representatives has agreed to sell up to 71% of Permata.

Syahrial said the sale had already drawn interest, including from Standard Chartered Bank, which had wanted to buy one of the five banks merged to form Permata, Bank Bali. The other banks were Bank Universal, Bank Arthamedia, Bank Prima Express and Bank Patriot, combing to create a lender with assets of around Rp30 trillion.

The government named ABN Amro as financial adviser for the planned sale in Bank Permata, Dow Jones Newswires reported.


Merpati Adds Six Boeings
State-owned airline company PT Merpati has chartered six more planes to its fleet. The two Boeing 737-300s and four Boeing 737-200s are aimed to improve flight operations in the face of tight competition, Antara reported. "Merpati has chartered the Boeing 737-300 aircraft from Singapore Technology Aerospace, while the Boeing 737-200s were chartered from Asia Fortis Aerospace, Dallas, on a two-year contract," Merpati spokesperson Yanine Helga Warokka said Thursday (10/6/04).

The new planes take Merpati’s Boeing fleet to 13 planes, as well as three Fokker-100s, eight Fokker-28s, two CN-235s, seven Casa 212s and eight DHC-Twin Otters. The airline recently abandoned its flight to Tanjung Pandan on Belitung Island because passengers preferred a private competitor’s Boeing aircraft to Merpati’s Fokkers.

Meanwhile private carrier Lion Air said it will lease 19 MD-82 and Boeing 737-400 aircraft this year to expand its international and domestic routes. Lion currently operates 23 aircraft. Another carrier, Jatayu, plans to lease four more Boeing 737-300 aircraft.


PRIVATE SECTOR

Fitch Boosts BII Rating
Fitch Ratings upgraded Wednesday (9/6/04) the rating of Bank Internasional Indonesia (BII) receivables trust's future flow credit card-receivable securitization to 'B+' from 'B'. The rating action follows the upgrade of BII’s long-term foreign currency rating to 'B+' from 'B' on May 7, the agency said in a statement.

“While the cash flows for the transaction have been volatile over the period since closing with the maximum debt service coverage ratio ranging from 7.58x down to 2.0x, the transaction has always remained within its rating parameters,” the statement said. “Fitch believes the transaction continues to perform in excess of its 'B+' rating although it is constrained by the sponsor BII's rating.”

BII meanwhile announced that it had entered into a strategic agreement on joint ATM access with Singapore’s DBS Bank.

Astra Auto Sales Jump
Indonesia's biggest automotive distributor, PT Astra International, said Friday (11/6/04) total vehicle sales in May, including exports, jumped to 22,347 units from 15,302 in the same period last year, Reuters reported.

Astra, 39.4% owned by Singapore's Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd, said in a statement that domestic vehicle sales last month jumped to 19,713 units from 11,971 year-on-year.

 

Analysts Tip Higher Cellular Profits
Cellular telephone market leader PT Telekomunikasi Selular (Telkomsel) had revised 2004 profit targets upward by around 25%, saying many new customers are signing up and the election campaign is boosting call traffic, Bloomberg News reported.

Net income is tipped to rise to as much as Rp5.3 trillion ($572 million) from last year’s figure of Rp4.24 trillion, Wim Timmermans, vice president of Business Control, said, although adding that growth would slow next year.

Fewer than one in 10 people own a mobile phone in Indonesia and almost a fifth of the nation's 231 million people will be able to afford one by the end of next year, he said.

More than a third of Thailand’s 63 million people have mobile phones, according to a March estimate by the Gartner research group. In the Philippines, 28% of the nation's approximately 85 million people have cellular access.

As many as 40 million Indonesians will be able to afford phones next year, Timmermans said. That will translate into as many as 9 million additional subscriptions, he said.

Six Companies Suspended
The Jakarta Stock Exchange (JSX) suspended trading of shares in six companies from Monday because of their failure to submit 2003 accounts, Dow Jones Newswires reported.

The firms are property company PT Bhuwanatala Indah Permai, construction company PT Bukaka Teknik Utama, packaging companies PT Wahana Jaya Perlasa and PT Siwani Makmur, engineering company PT Texmaco Perkasa Enginering (and chemical company PT Eterindo Wahanatama (ETWA).

They failed to submit their accounts by the extended deadline of May 28 and had not provided any reason for the failure, a statement said.

The JSX said it has further extended the deadline for trading company PT Wicaksana Overseas and textile company PT Apac Citra Centertex to June 11. PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia (and cement maker PT Semen Gresik will be given until the end of the month to submit their accounts.

Mastercard Transactions Boom
Credit card issuer MasterCard said it posted transactions in Indonesia valued at $610 million in the first quarter of the year, an increase of 138% year-on-year, Antara reported.

In 2003, the company recorded a business growth of 32.1% year-on-year with total transactions of $1.25 billion. The number of MasterCards issued rose to 2.82 million in 2003, up 55% on the previous year. In the first quarter this year the number rose to 3.14 million.


INFRASTRUCTURE

Monorail to Start
Construction of a monorail project for Jakarta is scheduled to begin immediately, The Jakarta Post reported. The first stanchion will be constructed on Jl. Asia Afrika, the report said.

The "green line" monorail will run for 14.8 kilometers through Jl. Sudirman and Jl. Rasuna Said. A second “blue” line will run for 12.2 kilometers from Kampung Melayu in East Jakarta to Roxy in West Jakarta.

Jakarta administration secretary Ritola Tasmaya said Wednesday confirmation had been received from the State Secretariat that President Megawati Sukarnoputri would inaugurate the project. The project is to be constructed by PT Jakarta Monorail, a consortium of Indonesian and foreign investors, including Japanese major Hitachi.

China to Disburse Suramadu Loan
China is expected to shortly disburse a loan of Rp1.5 trillion ($166.6 million) to finance the construction of the Surabaya-Madura (Suramadu) bridge, Antara reported. East Java administration spokesman Soeprawoto said the 5.4 kilometer bridge spanning the Madura strait will cost around Rp2.8 trillion

A memorandum of understanding on the disbursement of the loan to be repayable in eight years, is expected to be signed on June 23, Soeprawoto said.

Pelindo Plans New Priok Terminal
State-owned port operator PT Pelabuhan Indonesia (Pelindo) II is to accelerate reclamation of 500 hectares of land at Tanjung Priok for the construction of a new terminal. Supadi SW, a director of the company, said the terminal would be a multi-purpose facility, in line with a 20-year plan for expansion of the Jakarta port, Antara reported.

The project has been awarded to PT Manggala Krida Yudha under a 30-year joint operation scheme. The terminal will include a dry bulk terminal and a roll-on-roll-off terminal.

Interest in Bojonegoro Port
Investors from Hong Kong, the US, China and Malaysia are interested in building and operating a planned international port at Bojonegoro, Banten, Antara reported. The port, estimated to cost Rp10.1 trillion ($1.08 billion) is projected to be completed by 2009.

A. Syaifuddin, president of state-owned port operator PT Pelindo II, said after a hearing with legislators of parliament’s Commission IV that the port was designed to reduce congestion at Jakarta's Tanjung Priok port. Pelindo is currently constructing the first Rp300 billion stage of the port.

Syaifuddin did not name any of the prospective investors, but said they were interested in a joint operating scheme for the project.


POWER

Paiton Energy Mulls Expansion
PT Paiton Energy is planning to build another power plant with the capacity of generating 800-MW of electricity in the Paiton Complex in Probolinggo district, East Java to add to its existing 1200-MW of capacity.

Paiton Energy's president director Ronald P Landry said Monday (7/6/04) the first phase of the expansion of the Paiton power plant would cost about $580 million. He said Paiton Energy would sell electricity from the new power plant to state electricity company PLN for 4.79 cents a kWh, or lower than the restructured tariff of 4.93 cents a kWh it currently receives.

Paiton Energy is 44% owned by Edison Mission, 37% by Mitsui, 14% by General Electric and 5% by domestic shareholders. Landry confirmed that Edison would sell its stake in Paiton Energy and a number of investors had expressed interest in buying the stake.
MINING

Megawati on Mining Policy
Economic reasons outweighed environmental concerns in the government's recent decision to allow mining in protected forests, President Megawati Soekarnoputri said Monday (7/6/04). "The government has to take all aspects into account to help our business sector develop, which will create jobs for the surrounding communities," the President said in a speech during the national commemoration of World Environment Day, which fell on June 5. She said poverty was one major problem her administration had been able to reduce over the last three years.

The government issued regulation in lieu of law No. 1/2004 in March, allowing 13 mining firms to resume their operations in protected forests. Megawati said that despite this controversial policy, the government had done a great deal to curb damage to the country's forests.

Heavy Equipment Demand Up 40%
Demand for heavy equipment for both domestic use and for export rose 40% in the first four months of this year, the association of heavy equipment companies (Hinabi) said, Antara reported. Hinabi chairman Gunawan Setiadi said the surge in demand came mainly from coal mining companies. He said the strong demand is expected to continue through the year, based on strong international prices for coal.

An official of PT Komatsu Indonesia said demand for the company’s heavy equipment products doubled in the first four months of this year compared with the same period last year.


TRADE

Exports Rise 2.68%
Exports rose to $5.20 billion in April, up 2.68% from the Match figure of $5.07 billion, the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS) reported, according to Antara.

BPS chief Soedarti Surbakti said non-oil/gas exports were up 3.94% from $3.87 billion in March to $4.02 billion. Exports of oil and gas fell by 1.39% from $1.20 billion to $1.18 billion.

Crude petroleum exports were down a solid 12.59% but oil exports were up 44.75% while gas exports rose 0.48%.

Machinery and electrical appliances led the non-oil/gas export figures, contributing $2.53 billion, followed by machinery ($1.12 billion) and vegetable oils and fats ($1.21 billion).

Year-to-date performance of non-oil/gas exports reached $15.49 billion, up 1.16% on the same period in 2003.

The trade surplus rose 5.67% from the previous month to $2.05 billion in April as export growth outpaced imports. Imports rose only 0.9% to $3.16 billion, helped by a decline in crude oil imports to $442.6 million from $639.6 million in March. Processed oil imports rose to $420 million from $309.6 million.

East Europe Export Push Continues
As part of its move to boost trade with non-traditional markets, Indonesia will exhibit at the Romanian Consumer Goods Trade Fair in July, Antara reported.

"Participation in the expo is a significant part of Indonesia's efforts to promote its export products in the international market, especially in Eastern Europe," National Agency for Export Development (Nafed) chief Diah Maulida said Monday (31/5/04).

The exhibition is expected to attract buyers from across Eastern Europe. Products to be exhibited include furniture, food products, jewelry, handicrafts, toys and garments.

 

 Source :  Office of the Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs